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Scenario references
A collection of references on scenario planning.
Scenario how to guides
UK Department for Transport, undated, Scenario Planning Toolkit. http://www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/futures/secsceniss/wrdsenariotoolv2 Accessed 01-08-08
Shell International, 2003, Scenarios: an explorer's guide, Shell International, http://www-static.shell.com/static/aboutshell/downloads/our_strategy/shell_global_scenarios/scenario_explorersguide.pdf Accessed 01-08-08
Scearce D & Fulton K, 2004, What if? The art of scenario thinking for non-profits, GBN, http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid=32655&url=%2FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D34265 Accessed 01-08-08
Scenario theory articles
Bradfield, R., G. Wright, G. Burt, G. Cairns, and K. van der Heijden, 2005, The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37, 8: 795-812.
Cairns, G., G. Wright, K. van der Heijden, R. Bradfield and G. Burt, 2006, Enhancing foresight between multiple agencies: issues in the use of scenario thinking to overcome fragmentation, Futures, 38, 8: 1010-1025
Cairns G, Wright G, Bradfield R, van der Heijden K, & Burt G, 2004, Exploring e-government futures through the application of scenario planning, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71 (2004) 217-238
Kahane A, 2001, An overview of multi-stakeholder civic scenario work, Generon Consulting, USA, http://www.generonconsulting.com/publications/papers/pdfs/An%20Overview%20of%20Multi-Stakeholder%20Civic%20Scenario%20Work.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Kahane A, 2002, Changing the world by changing how we talk and listen, Generon Consulting, USA, http://www.c2d2.ca/adx/asp/adxGetMedia.asp?DocID=699,32,Documents&MediaID=1590&Filename=Kahane_on_talking_and_listening.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Korte RF & Chermack TJ, 2007, Changing organizational culture with scenario planning, Futures, Volume 39, Issue 6, Pages 645-656
Marchais-Roubelata A & Roubelat F, 2008, Designing action based scenarios, Futures, 40 (2008) 25–33
Peterson GD, Cumming GS & Carpenter SR, 2003, Scenario Planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world, Conservation Biology, Vol 17, No2, p358-366
Raskin P, 2004, Global Scenarios in Historic Perspective in Scenario Assessment Report Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Coordinating Lead Author.
Tibbs H, 2000, Making the future visible: psychology, scenarios and strategy, http://www.hardintibbs.com/pdfs/GBN_Tibbs3_00.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Wack P, 1985, Scenarios: uncharted water ahead, Harvard Business Review, Sept-Oct 1985, p73-89
Wack P, 1985b, Scenarios: shooting the rapids, Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec 1985, p139-150
Wright, G., G. Cairns, and P. Goodwin, 2008 in publication Scenario planning: lessons from practice for teaching and learning, European Journal for Operational Research
Wright, G., K van der Heijden, R Bradfield, G Burt and G Cairns, 2004, The psychology of why organizations can be slow to adapt and change: And what can be done about it. Journal of General Management, 29, 4: 21-36.
Wright G, van der Heijden K, Burt G, Bradfield R & Cairns G, 2008, Scenario planning interventions in organizations: An analysis of the causes of success and failure, Futures, Volume 40, Issue 3, Pages 203-312 (April 2008)
Scenario projects for country development
Colombia - Kahane A, 1998, Destino Colombia: A Scenario-Planning Process for the New Millennium, Global Business Network, Deeper News, California, http://www.reospartners.com/files/Destino%20Colombia.PDF accessed 01-08-08
Europe - Weber S, 2006, Europe 2020 perils and promise meeting report, GBN http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid=37857&url=%2FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D36332 accessed 01-08-08
Guatemala - Pinto E, 2004, Vision Guatemala 1998-2000: Building bridges of trust, Generon Consulting, http://www.reospartners.com/files/Vision%20Guatemala%20Learning%20History.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Kenya - Society for International Development & Institute of Economic Affairs, 1999, Kenya at the crossroads: scenarios for our future, SfID, http://www.kenyascenarios.org/ accessed 01-08-08
South Africa - le Roux P, 1992, The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What will South Africa be like in the year 2002?, Deeper News, GBN, Vol 7, No1. http://www.generonconsulting.com/publications/papers/pdfs/Mont%20Fleur.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Tanzania - Society for International Development, 2003, Tutafika: Imagining our future, http://www.tutafika.org/ accessed 01-08-08
Scenario projects for regional development
Crossroads Charlotte, 2005, Crossroads Charlotte, http://www.crossroadscharlotte.org/default.asp?id=3 Accessed 01-08-08
, Meadowlark Project, US, http://www.meadowlarkproject.org/scenarios.asp Accessed 01-08-08
Great Valley Center, 2008, The Valley Futures Project, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento http://www.greatvalley.org/valley_futures/index.aspx Accessed 01-08-08
Scenario projects on climate change
Berkhout F, et al, 2002, Socio-economic futures in CC impact assessment: using scenarios as learning machines, Global Environmental Change, 12(2002), 83-95
Dessai S, et al, 2005, On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning, Global Environmental Change, 15(2005), 87-97
GBN, 2007, Impacts of climate change: a system vulnerability approach to consider the potential impacts to 2050 of a mid-upper greenhouse gas emissions scenario, GBN, California, http://www.gbn.com/climatechange/ImpactsOfClimateChange.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Jordan A, et al, 2000-01, Co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: a scenario-based study in the UK, GEC, http://www.uea.ac.uk/env/cserge/pub/wp/gec/gec_2000_01.pdf accessed 01-08-08
NIES/IGES, 2005, The future climate regime: using the scenario planning approach to develop options, http://www-iam.nies.go.jp/post2012/pub/Future_Climate_Regime2005.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Schwartz P, Mintzer I & Leonard J, 2003, U.S. Energy Scenarios for the 21st Century, Pew Center, http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/EnergyScenarios.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Turnpenny J, Carney S, O’Riordan T & Haxeltine A, 2004, Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Part 1: A framing of the East of England. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 54, Uni of East Anglia, Norwich, http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp54.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Turnpenny J, O’Riordan T & Haxeltine A, 2005, Developing regional and local scenarios for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Part 2: Scenario Creation. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 67, Uni of East Anglia, Norwich, http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp67.pdf accessed 01-08-08
UNDP GEF, 2003, Developing socio-economic scenarios for use in vulnerability and adaptation assessments, National Communications Support Unit Handbook, http://www.undp.org/cc/WORKBOOK_SES%20(B)/Socio-economic%20Scenarios_Master_April%202004.pdf, accessed 01-08-08
Scenarios on complex global problem solving (Nautilus Institute)
Nautilus Institute, 2006, Open Minds, Open Futures, Melbourne, http://www.nautilus.org/gps/scenarios/Scenarios2006.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Nautilus Institute, 2004, Who Will Stop Nuclear Next Use?, Berkeley, http://www.nautilus.org/gps/scenarios/, accessed 01-08-08
Nautilus Institute, 2003, US-DPRK Next Steps Workshop, Washington DC, http://www.nautilus.org/archives/security/workshop/index.html accessed 01-08-08
Nautilus Institute, 2002, Future of U.S.-Korean Relations, Berkeley, http://www.nautilus.org/archives/security/Korea/index.html accessed 01-08-08
Nautilus Institute, 2003, A Korean Krakatoa? Scenarios for the Peaceful Resolution of the North Korean Nuclear Crisis, Berkeley, http://www.nautilus.org/DPRKBriefingBook/scenarios/DPRKscenarios2003.pdf accessed 01-08-08
Nautilus Institute, 2000, What Road Ahead? Prospects for the Future of U.S.-China Relations, Beijing, http://www.nautilus.org/archives/enviro/beijing2k/ accessed 01-08-08
Scenario related books
Asselt MBA, Rotmans J & Rotman DS, 2005, Scenario innovation – experiences from a European experimental garden, Taylor & Francis
Fahey K & Randall R (eds), 1997, Learning from the future, New York: John Wiley & Sons
Hennessy G, 2004, Scenarios of the future: the urgent case for sustainability, Pegasus Communications, USA
Huston T, 2007, Inside-Out: Stories and Methods for Generating Collective Will to Create the Future We Want, SoL, USA
Kahane A, 2004, Solving Tough Problems: An Open Way of Talking, Listening, and Creating New Realities, Berret-Koehler, California
Ogilvy J, 2002, Creating Better Futures: Scenario Planning As a Tool for A Better Tomorrow, Oxford Uni Press, USA
Pruitt B (ed), 2000, Civic Dialogue/Civic Scenarios Workshop, GBN, California
Ringland G, 2002, Scenarios in public policy, Wiley, England
Schwartz P, 1996, The art of the long view: paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. 2nd Edition, New York: Doubleday.
van der Heijden K, 1996, Scenarios the art of strategic conversation. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons
van der Heijden K, Bradfield R, Burt G, Cairns G & Wright G, 2002, The sixth sense: accelerating organisational learning with scenarios. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
Walzer N, 1996, Community strategic visioning programs, Praeger Publishers, UK
Scenario related websites
Scenario Planning – The Wikipedia entry on scenario planning. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
Scenario Planning Resources – a website by Martin Börjesson of Futureamb. It contains a wide plethora of information, how to guides, examples projects, reading lists and more. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/
Scenario Thinking Wiki – a wiki by Daniel Erasmus of Digital Thinking Network. This wiki contains how to information, example projects, interviews, suggestions for innovation, information on driving forces sorted by the STEEP categories and what is occurring within them. http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page